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North Africa's industrial and business sectors are growing apace, but will it overtake the booming Middle East on a global scale?
By 2020, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region is projected to be a $2 trillion (1.5 trillion, £1.2 trillion) economy, providing nearly a quarter of the world's oil supplies as well as increasing quantities of petrochemicals, metals and plastics. But The Saudi Gazette reports that North Africa's exponential growth could be set to overtake this burgeoning industrial corner of the planet, according to London-based Capital Economics.
Financial and socio-political challenges remain for North Africa, but three years after the Arab Spring uprisings, it is believes a gradual return to political stability in Egypt and Tunisia will support activity there, while exports are likely to thrive on the back of the gradually recovering global economy.
Meanwhile, expansion in the GCC region is expected to start slowing, as the hydrocarbon production boom of the past decade softens and fiscal policy becomes less supportive, Capital Economics stated.
"The big picture is that growth in North Africa could surpass that in the Gulf come next year," the organisation predicted.
According to Capital Economics' latest outlook study on the Middle East, Saudi Arabia's economy is anticipated to slow as government spending rises at a weaker pace and growth in the oil sector eases, while the non-oil industries of the UAE will benefit from the global economic recovery but rising property bubble fears and corporate debts will "cast a shadow" over forecasts.
Egypt's economy is set to continue recovering, but political unrest will remain a real risk and Tunisia will rally as it returns to political stability, supported by a return to financial health within the eurozone, the London business explained.
Qatar, it said, would remain the Middle East's best-performing economy thanks to ambitious investment.
However, the Saudi Gazette reported The Economist Intelligence Unit's "GCC 20202" report suggests that emerging markets will become increasingly important for trade and investment as the centre of economic gravity shifts south and eastwards. Gulf investors and sovereign wealth funds are anticipated to diversify their assets into Asia and Africa and the MENA region is likely to export more of its oil to industrialising countries.